A lot depends on exactly who ends up staying at school and who will decide to enter the NBA draft, but this is my first batch of predictions for March 2009. A lot will definitely change between now and then, but here we go…
ACC (6)
Champ: North Carolina
At-large: Duke, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Miami (FL), Clemson
Bubble: Boston College, Maryland, Florida State
The Way I See it: The ACC will very good from top to bottom. If Wayne Ellington, Ty Lawson, and Danny Green decide to head back to Chapel Hill (which they should), than the Tar Heels will return to the Final Four. V-Tech, Wake, and Miami are virtually returning everybody, making for high quality league play.
America East (1)
Champ: Hartford
Contenders: Vermont, Boston, Albany
The Way I see it: Another competitive year is expected, but Hartford will return 3 double digit scorers. The sleeper is Boston U who had 9 America East wins last year with no Seniors.
Atlantic Sun (1)
Champ: Belmont
Contenders: Jacksonville, Stetson, East Tennessee State
The Way I see it: Coming off of a near upset of Duke, Belmont will miss Justin Hare but will be poised for another Tournament run. A big question is whether Courtney Pigram will come back to East Tennessee State.
Atlantic 10 (2)
Champ: Temple
At-large: Xavier
Bubble: Dayton, Charlotte, UMASS, George Washington
The way I see it: Temple will take advantage of Christmas being back and a down year for the Musketeers. Xavier loses A LOT, but they are at a point where they can reload every year. Dayton is the last team out of the field with a great recruiting class but will miss Brian Roberts.
Big East (9)
Champ: UCONN
At-large: Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Villanova, Louisville, Marquette, West Virginia, Syracuse, Georgetown
Bubble: Providence, Cincinnati
The way I see it: The usual suspects will be in the mix again this year. UCONN and Pitt are the easy favorites at the top, but don’t sleep on Notre Dame who could sneak in to win the Big East title.
Big Sky (1)
Champ: Portland State
Contenders: Weber State, Idaho State, Northern Arizona
The way I see it: Whoever wins will be in the play-in game, most likely. I see Portland State repeating and making the tournament for a second time. Everybody in the league loses a lot, but the defending champs lose the least and climb past the off-season problems.
Big South (1)
Champ: UNC Asheville
Contenders: Liberty, VMI, Winthrop
The way I see it: Asheville returns big man Kenny George and will make the field. Winthrop will finally get ousted seeing as they lose literally EVERYBODY.
Big Ten (4)
Champ: Purdue
At-large: Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State
Bubble: Penn State, Michigan
The way I see it: The top will be pretty good for this league, but I only see 4 getting in. However, these four could make the Final Four. Indiana is going to have a lot to work out under new coach Tom Crean.
Big 12 (6)
Champ: Texas
At-large: Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri
Bubble: Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
The way I see it: This is the league with the most question marks that need answered by the players declaring for the draft. Missouri is a legit tournament team with their guys coming back, and Texas A&M is hoping at least one of their big men return. Nebraska returns their whole team and has a happy coach with a new contract. The Huskers are primed for a run. Kansas lost everybody, but if Chalmers comes back (and maybe Arthur) they could be back on top of this league.
Big West (1)
Champ: Pacific
Contenders: Cal State Northridge, UC Santa Barbara, Fullerton
The way I see it: 3 teams tied for first last year in this league, and Pacific was a game behind all of them. I expect them to escape from the pack and win this league outright thanks to all five starters returning to a 21-win team.
Colonial Athletic (1)
Champ: VCU
Bubble: none
Contenders: Northeastern, William & Mary, Hofstra
The way I see it: A down year this year for the CAA will bring Anthony Grant to the tournament and possibly vault him to a better job. The powers of George Mason and UNC Wilmington will be way down this year. Watch out for sleeper Hofstra.
Conference USA (2)
Champ: Memphis
At-large: UAB
Bubble: UTEP, Tulsa
The way I see it: Memphis could lose their whole team, but I expect a couple of them back. Put that with a trip to last year’s finals, John Calipari, and top recruit Tyreke Evans and the Tigers won’t miss a beat. UAB is hoping Robert Vaden will be back and I think he will be.
Horizon League (1)
Champ: Cleveland State
At-large: None
Bubble: Wright State, Butler
The way I see it: Losing Graves and Green will hurt for the Butler Bulldogs, leaving Wright State or Cleveland State to sneak in and take the Horizon crown. The edge goes to Cleveland State because of the return of key contributors.
MAAC (1)
Champ: Siena
Contenders: Rider, Marist, Fairfield
The way I see it: Siena is returning 3 of the MAAC’s top 7 scorers from last season (Ubiles, Hansbrouck, and Franklin) and only loses one Senior. Not bad for a team who upset Vanderbilt last season in the NCAA Tournament. Expect this team to do the same thing this year.
MAC (1)
Champ: Miami (OH)
At-large: none
Bubble: Kent State
Contenders: Western Michigan, Bowling Green
The way I see it: Miami loses Tim Politz, which is a huge loss, but returns everyone else on a team that was competitive with some of the top teams in the nation last season. Kent State could easily win this conference or could get an at-large bid because of Al Fisher’s return, but it loses two key players in Mike Scott and Haminn Quaintance. Watch for the sleeper Bowling Green.
Ivy League (1)
Champ: Cornell
Contenders: Penn, Brown, Yale
The way I see it: No one should come close to Cornell at winning this league. Cornell dominated last year going undefeated, I wouldn’t be surprised if they did it again this year.
MEAC (1)
Champ: Morgan State
Contenders: South Carolina State, Delaware State, Maryland-Eastern Shore
The way I see it: The defending regular season champs return leading scorer Jamar Smith. No one will contend with a team who won the Conference title by 4 games.
Missouri Valley (1)
Champ: Creighton
At-large: none
Bubble: Southern Illinois, Drake, Indiana State, Illinois State
The way I see it: This will more than likely be a one bid league but the question will be: who will get that one bid? I want to pick Drake again but I can’t get over the loss of Conference player of the year Emmenecker, Houston, and Korver, not to mention a new coach. So I’m going with Creighton, but I think any of the listed teams could pull it off. My sleeper in the Missouri Valley is Indiana State.
Mountain West (3)
Champ: BYU
At-large: San Diego State, UNLV
Bubble: New Mexico
The way I see it: If Plaisted comes back, BYU is a top 25 team all year. UNLV and San Diego State will get at-large bids returning a lot of fire power and both have great, postseason-tested coaches.
Northeast (1)
Champ: Mount Saint Mary’s
Contenders: Central Connecticut State, Wagner, Robert Morris
The way I see it: Sure they lose their top scorer, but they return a team that now has been to the NCAA Tournament. This league should be very competitive at the top.
Ohio Valley (1)
Champ: Tennessee-Martin
Contenders: Austin Peay, Murray State, Tennessee State
The way I see it: This one depends on Lester Hudson’s decision on whether or not to enter the draft. If Hudson comes back, it’s going to be awfully hard to stop him (25.7 ppg) and Marquis Weddle (17.1 ppg), 2 of the top 4 scorers in the Ohio Valley.
Pac-10 (4)
Champ: UCLA
At-large: Arizona State, USC, Washington
Bubble: Arizona, California
The way I see it: A down year for this league, but if Mbah-Moute and Josh Shipp decide to come back, UCLA could make it pretty deep. USC has a quality recruiting class. Arizona loses Budinger and Bayless to the draft, plus have to deal with Lute Olsen coming back. I don’t think they’re a tournament team, but others have them in easily.
Patriot (1)
Champ: American
Contenders: Lehigh, Navy, Bucknell
The way I see it: American was a tough team last year, beating Maryland and showing well for about 35 minutes in the first round against Tennessee. Expect more of the same this year as American should runaway with this one.
Southern Conference (1)
Champ: Davidson
Contenders: Chattanooga, Charleston, Appalachian State
The way I see it: Davidson is a top 25 team and will have a shot at making it deep in the tournament once again. This will be a 2-bid league if something miraculous happens.
SEC (5)
Champ: Tennessee
At-large: Kentucky, Florida, Mississippi, South Carolina
Bubble: Mississippi State, LSU, Alabama, Vanderbilt
The way I see it: Tennessee is losing a lot, but is also gaining a lot with their recruiting class. They still have some key components from the SEC championship team last year. So I will keep them as #1 with Kentucky and Florida as close 2nd and 3rd. After that it’s pretty up in the air. I like Darrin Horn as a coach in the SEC. His style of play mixed with experienced, athletic players I think will lift South Carolina into the tournament. And don’t sleep on Vanderbilt, sure they lose Shan Foster, but they don’t seem to ever lose at home.
Summit League (1)
Champ: IUPUI
Contenders: Oral Roberts, North Dakota State, Oakland
The way I see it: If George Hill comes back to Indianapolis, IUPUI will win this league and be in the tournament. They are well coached and with Hill, they will dominate this league, but this is a very talented conference.
Southland (1)
Champ: Stephen F. Austin
Contenders: UT-Arlington, UT-San Antonio, McNeese State
The way I see it: Stephen F. Austin will be this year’s Siena, they will win an NCAA Tournament game, mark my words now.
Sun Belt (1)
Champ: Middle Tennessee
Contenders: South Alabama, Arkansas State, North Texas
The way I see it: Two bids last year for this league, I don’t think it’ll happen again next year. South Alabama could return back to the dance, but I see Middle Tennessee going. They graduated ZERO Seniors. Not bad for a team who made the Conference finals last year.
SWAC (1)
Champ: Alabama State
Contenders: Alabama A&M, Jackson State, Southern U
The way I see it: Alabama State won the regular season SWAC championship by 3 games last season. They will again under the lead of Senior Andrew Hayles.
WAC (1)
Champ: Nevada
At-large: None
Bubble: New Mexico State, San Jose State, Utah State
The way I see it: Another down year for this league, but I think it comes down to either New Mexico State or Nevada. Nevada gets the edge right now because they should be able to fill their holes the best.
West Coast (3)
Champ: Gonzaga
At-large: San Diego, Saint Mary’s
Bubble: None
The way I see it: The WCC is stacked this year and will be fun to watch, late at night of course. San Diego coach Bill Grier is trying to build a team like his former boss Mark Few did. Grier isn’t losing a single player from a team who beat UCONN in last year’s tournament. They’ll be back and with a better seed.
Last Four in: Nebraska, Missouri, UNLV, South Carolina
Last Four out: Dayton, Arizona, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
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