Davidson looking for another big splash this season

Last season, Bob McKillop wanted to make an impact on the college basketball world in the regular season by playing big time opponents North Carolina, UCLA, NC State, and Duke.  They didn’t get a win over a high profile team until the Tournament when they upset Gonzaga, Georgetown, Wisconsin, and came within a last second 3 of beating eventual National Champ Kansas.

This season is full of high expectations for McKillop’s Wildcats and star guard Stephen Curry.  The obvious favorites to win the Southern Conference this year, Davidson is seeking national recognition.  They will certainly have their chances again in front of the national spotlight.  The full schedule isn’t out yet, but early season match-ups have been released.

In November, they will participants in the 16-team NIT Season Tip-off.  Placed in the South Regional in Norman, OK, the Wildcats are set to play James Madison.  If they win, they have a huge opportunity.  They will most likely play Oklahoma (who plays Mississippi Valley State in the opener) for the right to go to Madison Square Garden for the final four where they could meet Purdue, Arizona, UAB, or Georgia.

They hope to make their December 9th trip to New York their second in less than a month when they face Bobby Huggins and West Virginia in the Jimmy V Classic, also in Madison Square Garden.

Inspiration from Coach Wooden and Honest Abe

I’m reading through John Wooden’s book, “WOODEN: A Lifetime of Observations and Reflections on and off the Court”. I came across this and thought I’d share it:

Persistence Is Stronger than Failure

Abraham Lincoln is acknowledged as one of America’s greatest presidents.  Here is a brief summary of his career:

1831 - Failed in business

1832 - Defeated for legislature

1833 - Failed in business again

1834 - Elected to legislature

1835 - Sweetheart died

1836 - Had nervous breakdown

1838 - Defeated for speaker

1840 - Defeated for elector

1843 - Defeated for congressional nomination

1846 - Elected to Congress

1848 - Defeated for Congress

1855 - Defeated for Senate

1856 - Defeated for Vice President

1859 - Defeated for Senate

1860 - Elected President of the United States

Few people have suffered more personal, professional, and political adversity than Abraham Lincoln.  He persisted in the face of failure and emerged victorious.

Another president, Calvin Coolidge, described it very well:

“Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence.  Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent.  Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb.  Education will not;  the world is full of educated derelicts.  Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent.”

The model Mr. Lincoln gave us with his persistence is one we can remember in the face of our own setbacks.  And what is most wondrous of all is that persistence is a quality that we ourselves control.  You, and only you, can decide whether you will stay the course.

2008 Maui Invitational Field

The Maui Invitational is always a good watch, especially because it kicks off the season on ESPN.  This year’s field is a very solid group of programs.  6 of the 8 teams were in the tournament last year.  Here’s the field:

North Carolina, Texas, Notre Dame, Oregon, Saint Joseph’s, Indiana, Alabama, and host Chaminade

What’s interesting is that 5 of the past 10 years a team playing in the Maui Invitational goes on to play in the Final Four.  Four of those five times, it was the Maui Champion who made it.  One time a National Champion (North Carolina, 2005) won the Maui.  Three of those years (2000, 2001, 2005), there were two Final Four teams as participants in this event.  Maui tries to select top programs, but it’s pretty remarkable that of 7 D-1 teams participating in Hawaii, one or two make it to the Final Four half of the time.

So when you’re watching this year, there’s a 50% chance that you’ll be watching at least one Final Four team.  It seems fairly likely that it will happen this year with North Carolina, everybody’s favorite to win it all, in the field.  Here’s the Final Four teams that played in Maui the last 10 years:

Season Team Maui Result Season Result
2006-2007             UCLA                        Champs                            Final Four
2004-2005             North Carolina         Champs                            Champs
Louisville                                                          Final Four
2001-2002             Kansas                                                              Final Four
2000-2001             Arizona                     Champs                           Runner-up
Maryland                                                           Final Four
1999-2000             North Carolina          Champs                           Final Four
Florida                                                              Runner-up

Field of 65: Pre-draft camp

A lot depends on exactly who ends up staying at school and who will decide to enter the NBA draft, but this is my first batch of predictions for March 2009.  A lot will definitely change between now and then, but here we go…

ACC (6)

Champ:  North Carolina

At-large:  Duke, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Miami (FL), Clemson

Bubble:  Boston College, Maryland, Florida State

The Way I See it:  The ACC will very good from top to bottom.  If Wayne Ellington, Ty Lawson, and Danny Green decide to head back to Chapel Hill (which they should), than the Tar Heels will return to the Final Four.  V-Tech, Wake, and Miami are virtually returning everybody, making for high quality league play.

America East (1)

Champ:  Hartford

Contenders:  Vermont, Boston, Albany

The Way I see it:  Another competitive year is expected, but Hartford will return 3 double digit scorers.  The sleeper is Boston U who had 9 America East wins last year with no Seniors.

Atlantic Sun (1)

Champ:  Belmont

Contenders:  Jacksonville, Stetson, East Tennessee State

The Way I see it:  Coming off of a near upset of Duke, Belmont will miss Justin Hare but will be poised for another Tournament run.  A big question is whether Courtney Pigram will come back to East Tennessee State.

Atlantic 10 (2)

Champ:  Temple

At-large:  Xavier

Bubble:  Dayton, Charlotte, UMASS, George Washington

The way I see it:  Temple will take advantage of Christmas being back and a down year for the Musketeers.  Xavier loses A LOT, but they are at a point where they can reload every year.  Dayton is the last team out of the field with a great recruiting class but will miss Brian Roberts.

Big East (9)

Champ:  UCONN

At-large:  Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Villanova, Louisville, Marquette, West Virginia, Syracuse, Georgetown

Bubble:  Providence, Cincinnati

The way I see it:  The usual suspects will be in the mix again this year.  UCONN and Pitt are the easy favorites at the top, but don’t sleep on Notre Dame who could sneak in to win the Big East title.

Big Sky (1)

Champ:  Portland State

Contenders:  Weber State, Idaho State, Northern Arizona

The way I see it:  Whoever wins will be in the play-in game, most likely.  I see Portland State repeating and making the tournament for a second time.  Everybody in the league loses a lot, but the defending champs lose the least and climb past the off-season problems.

Big South (1)

Champ:  UNC Asheville

Contenders:  Liberty, VMI, Winthrop

The way I see it:  Asheville returns big man Kenny George and will make the field.  Winthrop will finally get ousted seeing as they lose literally EVERYBODY.

Big Ten (4)

Champ:  Purdue

At-large:  Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State

Bubble:  Penn State, Michigan

The way I see it:  The top will be pretty good for this league, but I only see 4 getting in.  However, these four could make the Final Four.  Indiana is going to have a lot to work out under new coach Tom Crean.

Big 12 (6)

Champ:  Texas

At-large:  Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri

Bubble:  Oklahoma State, Texas A&M

The way I see it:  This is the league with the most question marks that need answered by the players declaring for the draft.  Missouri is a legit tournament team with their guys coming back, and Texas A&M is hoping at least one of their big men return.  Nebraska returns their whole team and has a happy coach with a new contract.  The Huskers are primed for a run.  Kansas lost everybody, but if Chalmers comes back (and maybe Arthur) they could be back on top of this league.

Big West (1)

Champ:  Pacific

Contenders:  Cal State Northridge, UC Santa Barbara, Fullerton

The way I see it:  3 teams tied for first last year in this league, and Pacific was a game behind all of them.  I expect them to escape from the pack and win this league outright thanks to all five starters returning to a 21-win team.

Colonial Athletic (1)

Champ:  VCU

Bubble:  none

Contenders:  Northeastern, William & Mary, Hofstra

The way I see it:  A down year this year for the CAA will bring Anthony Grant to the tournament and possibly vault him to a better job.  The powers of George Mason and UNC Wilmington will be way down this year.  Watch out for sleeper Hofstra.

Conference USA (2)

Champ:  Memphis

At-large:  UAB

Bubble:  UTEP, Tulsa

The way I see it:  Memphis could lose their whole team, but I expect a couple of them back.  Put that with a trip to last year’s finals, John Calipari, and top recruit Tyreke Evans and the Tigers won’t miss a beat.  UAB is hoping Robert Vaden will be back and I think he will be.

Horizon League (1)

Champ:  Cleveland State

At-large:  None

Bubble:  Wright State, Butler

The way I see it:  Losing Graves and Green will hurt for the Butler Bulldogs, leaving Wright State or Cleveland State to sneak in and take the Horizon crown.  The edge goes to Cleveland State because of the return of key contributors.

MAAC (1)

Champ:  Siena

Contenders:  Rider, Marist, Fairfield

The way I see it:  Siena is returning 3 of the MAAC’s top 7 scorers from last season (Ubiles, Hansbrouck, and Franklin) and only loses one Senior.  Not bad for a team who upset Vanderbilt last season in the NCAA Tournament.  Expect this team to do the same thing this year.

MAC (1)

Champ:  Miami (OH)

At-large:  none

Bubble:  Kent State

Contenders:  Western Michigan, Bowling Green

The way I see it:  Miami loses Tim Politz, which is a huge loss, but returns everyone else on a team that was competitive with some of the top teams in the nation last season.  Kent State could easily win this conference or could get an at-large bid because of Al Fisher’s return, but it loses two key players in Mike Scott and Haminn Quaintance.  Watch for the sleeper Bowling Green.

Ivy League (1)

Champ:  Cornell

Contenders:  Penn, Brown, Yale

The way I see it:  No one should come close to Cornell at winning this league.  Cornell dominated last year going undefeated, I wouldn’t be surprised if they did it again this year.

MEAC (1)

Champ:  Morgan State

Contenders:  South Carolina State, Delaware State, Maryland-Eastern Shore

The way I see it:  The defending regular season champs return leading scorer Jamar Smith.  No one will contend with a team who won the Conference title by 4 games.

Missouri Valley (1)

Champ:  Creighton

At-large:  none

Bubble:  Southern Illinois, Drake, Indiana State, Illinois State

The way I see it:  This will more than likely be a one bid league but the question will be:  who will get that one bid?  I want to pick Drake again but I can’t get over the loss of Conference player of the year Emmenecker, Houston, and Korver, not to mention a new coach.  So I’m going with Creighton, but I think any of the listed teams could pull it off.  My sleeper in the Missouri Valley is Indiana State.

Mountain West (3)

Champ:  BYU

At-large:  San Diego State, UNLV

Bubble:  New Mexico

The way I see it:  If Plaisted comes back, BYU is a top 25 team all year.  UNLV and San Diego State will get at-large bids returning a lot of fire power and both have great, postseason-tested coaches.

Northeast (1)

Champ:  Mount Saint Mary’s

Contenders:  Central Connecticut State, Wagner, Robert Morris

The way I see it:  Sure they lose their top scorer, but they return a team that now has been to the NCAA Tournament.  This league should be very competitive at the top.

Ohio Valley (1)

Champ:  Tennessee-Martin

Contenders:  Austin Peay, Murray State, Tennessee State

The way I see it:  This one depends on Lester Hudson’s decision on whether or not to enter the draft.  If Hudson comes back, it’s going to be awfully hard to stop him (25.7 ppg) and Marquis Weddle (17.1 ppg), 2 of the top 4 scorers in the Ohio Valley.

Pac-10 (4)

Champ:  UCLA

At-large:  Arizona State, USC, Washington

Bubble:  Arizona, California

The way I see it:  A down year for this league, but if Mbah-Moute and Josh Shipp decide to come back, UCLA could make it pretty deep.  USC has a quality recruiting class.  Arizona loses Budinger and Bayless to the draft, plus have to deal with Lute Olsen coming back.  I don’t think they’re a tournament team, but others have them in easily.

Patriot (1)

Champ:  American

Contenders:  Lehigh, Navy, Bucknell

The way I see it:  American was a tough team last year, beating Maryland and showing well for about 35 minutes in the first round against Tennessee.  Expect more of the same this year as American should runaway with this one.

Southern Conference (1)

Champ:  Davidson

Contenders:  Chattanooga, Charleston, Appalachian State

The way I see it:  Davidson is a top 25 team and will have a shot at making it deep in the tournament once again.  This will be a 2-bid league if something miraculous happens.

SEC (5)

Champ:  Tennessee

At-large:  Kentucky, Florida, Mississippi, South Carolina

Bubble:  Mississippi State, LSU, Alabama, Vanderbilt

The way I see it:  Tennessee is losing a lot, but is also gaining a lot with their recruiting class.  They still have some key components from the SEC championship team last year.  So I will keep them as #1 with Kentucky and Florida as close 2nd and 3rd.  After that it’s pretty up in the air.  I like Darrin Horn as a coach in the SEC.  His style of play mixed with experienced, athletic players I think will lift South Carolina into the tournament.  And don’t sleep on Vanderbilt, sure they lose Shan Foster, but they don’t seem to ever lose at home.

Summit League (1)

Champ:  IUPUI

Contenders:  Oral Roberts, North Dakota State, Oakland

The way I see it:  If George Hill comes back to Indianapolis, IUPUI will win this league and be in the tournament.  They are well coached and with Hill, they will dominate this league, but this is a very talented conference.

Southland (1)

Champ:  Stephen F. Austin

Contenders:  UT-Arlington, UT-San Antonio, McNeese State

The way I see it:  Stephen F. Austin will be this year’s Siena, they will win an NCAA Tournament game, mark my words now.

Sun Belt (1)

Champ:  Middle Tennessee

Contenders:  South Alabama, Arkansas State, North Texas

The way I see it:  Two bids last year for this league, I don’t think it’ll happen again next year.  South Alabama could return back to the dance, but I see Middle Tennessee going.  They graduated ZERO Seniors.  Not bad for a team who made the Conference finals last year.

SWAC (1)

Champ:  Alabama State

Contenders:  Alabama A&M, Jackson State, Southern U

The way I see it:  Alabama State won the regular season SWAC championship by 3 games last season.  They will again under the lead of Senior Andrew Hayles.

WAC (1)

Champ:  Nevada

At-large:  None

Bubble:  New Mexico State, San Jose State, Utah State

The way I see it:  Another down year for this league, but I think it comes down to either New Mexico State or Nevada.  Nevada gets the edge right now because they should be able to fill their holes the best.

West Coast (3)

Champ:  Gonzaga

At-large:  San Diego, Saint Mary’s

Bubble:  None

The way I see it:  The WCC is stacked this year and will be fun to watch, late at night of course.  San Diego coach Bill Grier is trying to build a team like his former boss Mark Few did.  Grier isn’t losing a single player from a team who beat UCONN in last year’s tournament.  They’ll be back and with a better seed.

Last Four in: Nebraska, Missouri, UNLV, South Carolina

Last Four out:  Dayton, Arizona, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M

Tournament Profile: San Diego Toreros

 

Conference: West Coast

Location: San Diego, CA

Coach: Bill Grier

Record: 21-13, 11-3 in conference

Notable Wins: @Kentucky, Saint Mary’s (twice), Gonzaga

Win Streak: 5

Players to watch: Rob Jones, Brandon Johnson, Gyno Pomare

Seed Projection: 14

The Toreros won the West Coast Conference by beating the top 2 seeds in back to back nights.  Beating Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga in consecutive nights is a task that a lot of top teams in the nation couldn’t do.  San Diego was everyone’s sleeper seeing as the tournament was on their home court.  They have some solid wins, but also some really bad loses.  San Diego had some chances to make big splashes playing USC, New Mexico, and UNLV.  They lost all of those by double digits.  Instead, they had to do it the hard way and won their own tournament.  This will be a dangerous 14 seed because of the roll they are on.  Going to Rupp Arena and beat Kentucky is also a pretty impressive task.

 

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Tournament Profile: Mount Saint Mary’s Mountaineers

Conference: Northeast

Location: Emmitsburg, MD

Coach: Milan Brown

Record: 18-14, 11-7 in conference

Notable Wins: Winthrop

Notable Loses: @Oregon (by 8 )

Win Streak: 5
Players to watch: Chris Vann, Jeremy Goode

Seed Projection: 16 (play-in game)

Another improbable run in a small conference tournament. The fourth seeded Mountaineers won the Northeast Conference winning 3 games by 10, 18, and 13. The 18 point victory was over the top seeded Robert Morris. The domination vaults Mount Saint Mary’s into the NCAA Tournament for the second time in school history. Coach Brown has a young team, but a team that believes. With their only marquee win over tournament team Winthrop, their RPI isn’t very strong, leading to a trip to Dayton for the opening round game. However, Milan Brown has a secret weapon on his side. “I put my wife [Tina] to work taping all the conference championship games that are on TV. She knows all the conferences now. Hopefully we’ll get lucky and we’ll have some tape.”

 

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Tournament Profile: Coppin State Eagles

 

Conference: MEAC

Location: Baltimore, MD

Coach: Ron Mitchell

Record: 16-19, 12-9 in conference

Win Streak:  4

Players to watch: Tywain McKee, Antwan Harrison

Seed Projection: 16 (play-in game)

With all the Cinderella stories in this year’s conference tournaments, this one has to be one of the best.  The Eagles started the season 2-18 in Division 1 play, including losing 10 straight at one point.  The earned the 7-seed in the MEAC tournament and beat Howard in the opening round by 1.  The then beat 2-seed Hampton by 1 in OT, 3-seed Norfolk State by 3, and finally top seed Morgan State by 2.  That’s four straight wins in four straight nights by a combined 7 points.  Unbelievable.  With a losing record, they will be playing in Dayton on Tuesday Night for the play-in game.  Coppin State is not a stranger to miracles, however.  In the 1997 NCAA Tournament, the 15th seeded Eagles upset 2-seed South Carolina and came within a point of reaching the Sweet 16.

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Tournament Profile: Drake Bulldogs

 

Conference: Missouri Valley

Location: Des Moines, IA

Coach: Keno Davis

Record: 28-4, 15-3 in conference

Notable Wins: @Butler, @Iowa, Iowa State (79-44), Illinois State (3 times), Creighton (3 times), Southern Illinois

Notable Loses: @Saint Mary’s

Win Streak: 4

Longest  win streak during the year:  21

Players to watch:  Adam Emmenecker, Josh Young, Klayton Korver, Jonathon Cox, Leonard Houston

Seed Projection: 5-6

The basketball king of  Iowa has switched regimes, but has stayed in the same conference.  Usually, Northern Iowa beats Iowa and Iowa State, the big name schools, but this year Missouri Valley Champion Drake takes the crown and will be representing the state in the Big Dance.  This team is fun to watch.  Going from a projected 9th place finish to total domination in one of the toughest mid-major conferences in the country, Drake has finally made believers out of the skeptics.  Especially after destroying Illinois State in the conference final.  The Missouri Valley is a conference that hasn’t seen its top seed win the tournament for a long time.  Drake did that led by former walk on and bench warmer Adam Emmenecker, the favorite to win player of the year in the conference.  Showing up in a tough conference is one thing, but going to Hinkle Fieldhouse and beating Butler is huge.  They will probably be a 5 or 6 seed, which means they could get a tough first round matchup with a bubble team.

 

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Tournament Profile: Winthrop Eagles

Conference: Big South

Location: Rock Hill, SC

Coach: Randy Peele

Record: 22-11, 10-4 in conference

Notable Wins: @Miami (FL), Georgia Tech

Notable Loses: Baylor (by 8), @ Ole Miss (by 5), @West Virginia, Davidson

Win Streak: 3

Players to watch: Michael Jenkins, Taj McCullough, Chris Gaynor

Seed Projection: 15

I can’t believe that I ever doubted that Winthrop would be back in the NCAA Tournament. I figured that this would be the year after coach Greg Marshall left for what seemed to be greener pastures at Wichita State. But the Eagles beat UNC-Asheville on their home court Saturday to snatch their fourth straight bid. Last offseason, Winthrop guard DeAndre Adams was killed in a car accident. A couple months later, senior Michael Jenkins got a tattoo in Adams’ honor sporting a basketball with the words “RIP Dre” underneath it. The season and now this NCAA Tournament bid is dedicated to Adams’ memory. With a team full of Seniors who has years of experience in the tournament, including last year’s first round upset of Notre Dame, and wins over two ACC teams, this team could surprise someone in the first round. As new coach Randy Peele said Saturday, “You have a chance when you have Seniors”.

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Tournament Profile: Austin Peay Governors

Conference: Ohio Valley

Location: Clarksville, TN

Coach: Dave Loos

Record: 24-10, 16-4 in conference

Notable Wins: Belmont (twice)

Notable Loses: @Memphis, @Vanderbilt

Win Streak: 6 straight, 11 of last 12

Players to watch: Drake Reed, Kyle Duncan, Derek Wright

Seed Projection: 15

I’m really glad the Governors won because now I can hear the infamous chant during the tournament, “Let’s go Peay”. Another small Tennessee team that is disciplined and solid at shooting the three. Kyle Duncan is a 3-point specialist making over 54% of his 3-point field goals. Seniors Todd Babington and Derek Wright will lead the team in a tough first round matchup. No big wins to add to their resume, but playing tough at Memphis and Vandy might play to their advantage.

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